Following Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1, Israel is contemplating retaliation. While the 180 ballistic missiles caused little to no damage and, fortunately, resulted in no casualties—except for one Palestinian killed by flying debris—Israel has promised a response. And according to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari, it will be on an unprecedented scale. Could Israel be preparing for a nuclear strike?
Defense circles believe that the Israeli Air Force is targeting Iran’s nuclear facility in Natanz, where Iran has been working on a nuclear bomb for years, despite denials from Tehran. The Center for Strategic and International Studies predicts that Iran could soon possess around 10–20 nuclear weapons, mainly fission devices with a range of 15–30 kilotons. Iran’s delivery systems likely include at least 100 Shahab 3 missiles (with a range of 1,300 km), several hundred smaller Shahab missiles (300–500 km range), and some solid-fuel Sejjil-2 missiles (2,000 km range).
A recent study by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University underscores the serious threat posed by Iran and its regional militias to Israel, particularly if Tehran acquires nuclear weapons, possibly with North Korean support. The potential for Iran to obtain nuclear-armed missiles poses a significant danger to the region. Other Middle Eastern powers might also pursue nuclear capabilities in response, raising the stakes for a nuclear arms race. This emphasizes the critical need for strong international efforts to prevent further escalation. Yet, these efforts have so far yielded little. It is well-known that Iran is enriching uranium on a large scale, bringing them ever closer to developing a nuclear weapon.
Now that Iran has launched its second missile and drone attack on Israel, and as aggression from Iran and its allied militias increases, the necessity for a decisive response to Iranian violence grows. The Begin-Sadat Center study highlights Israel’s “Samson Option” strategy, which is based on the potential use of nuclear weapons in response to existential threats or attacks involving weapons of mass destruction. Among its recommendations is for Israel to openly acknowledge its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent against Iran. The study also considers the possibility of preemptive nuclear strikes to prevent catastrophic outcomes. Ultimately, the study advocates for preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons at all costs.
The current crisis may prompt Israeli leadership to consider targeted strikes on Iranian territory to cripple or completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear program before it becomes an insurmountable threat. Israel is believed to possess between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads and can deliver them via multiple methods, including aircraft, submarine-launched cruise missiles, and the Jericho series of intermediate-to-intercontinental-range ballistic missiles.
The Israeli Navy operates around ten German-made Dolphin-class submarines, which can be equipped with cruise missiles carrying a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead containing up to six kilograms of plutonium. A 200-kiloton weapon is roughly 10 times the power of the plutonium bomb dropped on Nagasaki. These cruise missiles have a range of at least 1,500 km, putting Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz within striking distance of Israel’s submarines stationed in the Mediterranean Sea. Another option is the use of Israel’s Jericho III intercontinental ballistic missiles, capable of striking virtually any location on Earth. These missiles could potentially carry a one-megaton warhead—50 times the power of the Nagasaki bomb—allowing Israel to simultaneously target and destroy multiple Iranian nuclear sites with pinpoint accuracy, aided by Israel’s advanced satellite technology.
A third option involves the Israeli Air Force. Both the Boeing F-15 and F-35 aircraft have nuclear capabilities and can reach targets in Iran. However, the F-35’s range is insufficient for a round-trip without mid-air refueling. The Israeli Air Force’s F-15I, similar to the F-15E, has a range of around 5,000 kilometers, making it well-suited for striking Natanz and other distant targets.
A conventional attack on Natanz seems impractical, especially since much of the complex is buried deep underground. While the BLU-110 bunker-buster bomb, which destroyed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s bunker in Lebanon, would cause significant damage, it is unlikely to penetrate Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facilities. A more suitable option would be the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 13-ton bomb deployable only by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber or the F-15EX. However, Israel has not yet received the F-15EX fighters, which are expected by 2026. If Israel were to consider the BLU-57 as a conventional option, special C-130 Hercules transport planes would be required for the mission. The U.S. Air Force has previously used Hercules planes to deploy large, heavy bombs. The Israeli Air Force, with its expertise in covert operations using these transport aircraft (as seen in the successful Entebbe raid), now operates the C-130J Super Hercules, which flies at low altitudes, allowing Israel to conduct more complex, clandestine missions deep inside enemy territory, as noted by IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz when Israel received its first C-130J in 2014.
Deploying large transport planes deep into Iranian airspace is undeniably risky. A more feasible option might involve using F-15 jets combined with the GBU-72, a lighter (two-ton) advanced version of the GBU-57 that has shown improved results. A salvo of 100 or more of these bombs concentrated on a single target could have a devastating effect. Israel has already placed an order for these superweapons with the Pentagon, though it’s unclear if they have been delivered yet. Should these not be available, Israel may have little choice but to consider the “red button” for a nuclear strike.
Unless, of course, the Mossad has another surprise in store, possibly sabotaging Iran’s nuclear production from within. We may not have to wait long for the answers.